Posters Sessions Description
MONDAY 24 OCTOBER
Home to over half of the world population, the Australian-Asian region spans some of the widest ranges of climatological conditions on the planet, with the climate molded by high mountains, large deserts, cold and warm oceans. The Australian-Asian monsoon is a key component of climate in this region, but the climate also varies in response to a wide range of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions and teleconnections (e.g., El Niño). It also witnesses extreme meteorological and climatic events such as severe tropical cyclones. The result is devastating floods and droughts, bush and forest fires, heat waves, dust storms and aggravated air pollution. Due to rapid development and dense population, the annual economic loss due to these climate disasters is high. This session focuses on assessing progress and highlighting the outstanding problems for understanding, simulating, and predicting regional climate variability and change in the Australian-Asian region (including but not limited to the monsoon) on timescales from intraseasonal to decadal and beyond. We welcome studies that address practical application of climate predictions and projections for management of water and other natural resources, human health, agriculture, and other climatically sensitive enterprises in this region.
We invite posters that broadly investigate the Arctic and/or Antarctic polar systems and address:
- evidence for climate change;
- improvements in high latitude monitoring;
- advances in understanding and quantification of the role of polar regions in Earth's climate;
- advances in understanding the impacts of, and adaptation to, climate change in the these regions; and
- advances in understanding interannual to decadal variability in the polar regions.
Contributions on all components of the polar climate system including the ocean/atmosphere/sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers, permafrost, and snow cover, as well as integrated climate system studies, are welcome.
Global change will ultimately affect human populations on a local basis. Our challenge lies in developing the capacity to predict these regional changes, and to understand and communicate the uncertainties of these projections. This will require studies aimed at developing high resolution regional models, contributing to resource management, optimizing monitoring strategies, capacity building, identifying and pursuing sustainable pathways, and developing decision-support tools to implement the strategies.
This session invites synthesis posters for coastal and open ocean regions on:
- improved process understanding required for regional integrated assessments;
- new technologies and monitoring strategies for regionally specific in situ, airborne, and space-based observational instruments and platforms;
- novel approaches to optimize observational systems for monitoring and predictions for resource management;
- new approaches and improved models for enhancing the skills and usability of regional predictions and projections;
- development of clearly understood uncertainty estimates of projections and predictions;
- global forecasts and observational needs for regional end-to-end downscaling;
- coupled ocean-atmosphere models to understand the feedback mechanisms;
- links from regional scale to integrated Earth System models;
- regional and local vulnerability and risk assessments, adaptation and mitigation strategies, sustainability indicators, and pathways for transition towards sustainability;
- synthetic indicator panels, integrated assessments and life cycle analysis approaches, interactive decision-support tools for regional governance;
- case studies of regional ocean and coastal system governance, education, and capacity building, lessons learned, scalability of regional and local outcomes; and
- policy needs for global-regional interactions for adaptive management, regional/local sustainability issues in global sustainability context.
Participation from early career scientists, especially from under-represented communities and developing countries is strongly encouraged.
The changing composition of the atmosphere is strongly linked to changes in climate. We invite poster submissions to this session that discuss the processes and mechanisms relating natural or anthropogenic composition changes to climate forcing and stratospheric ozone depletion/recovery. This also includes potential feedbacks of climate change on tropospheric and stratospheric composition. Potential topics include forcing due to emissions of greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and aerosol or aerosol precursors. We further welcome submissions that explore the impact of other forcing mechanisms, such as solar variations and volcanic activity, on climate and ozone. Other appropriate submissions could involve the study of the linkages between climate change and ozone from a process-oriented perspective. We also invite contributions that explore ways to improve our ability to evaluate past composition and to predict future composition, possibly including the related forcing implications.
Session C8: Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate
(conveners: H. Hendon, B. Holtslag, Y.-L. Lin, N. McFarlane, G. Svensson, S. Yoden)
Atmospheric dynamical processes on a broad range of time and spatial scales (from local turbulence to mesoscale processes and up to global scale circulations) strongly influence weather and climate. Understanding the nature of these processes and their interactions is fundamental for weather and climate prediction and for more reliable climate modeling and future climate scenario studies. Representation of small-scale dynamical processes, their role, interactions and implementation in atmospheric models, their impacts on larger scale dynamics and climate model performance are important aspect of our session, as well as the phenomenological aspects and dynamical processes on a wide range of scales and their nonlinear interactions. Posters covering the following topics are also invited:
- the general problem of parameterizing small-scale physical processes;
- representation and evaluation of boundary layer dynamical processes;
- dynamical instability and wave motions, including their nonlinear aspects;
- dry and moist vortex dynamics from small to planetary scales;
- tropospheric and stratospheric circulation systems and phenomena and their interactions;
- modes of dynamical variability including (i.e., MJO, NAO, NAM/SAM, ENSO, IOD, etc.)…
Session C9: Oceans and Climate
(conveners: T. Lee, W. Hazeleger, T. Suga, J. Brown, M. Barreiro)
The oceans store, redistribute, and release various properties such as heat, freshwater, and carbon. Through these processes, the oceans often affect the interaction among various components of Earth’s climate system on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Prominent examples of the active roles of oceans in modulating climate on interannual-to-centennial time scales are the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This session solicits contributions that address the relationship, and especially the interaction, between the oceans and other components of the climate system (e.g., atmosphere, land, cryosphere, and biosphere) both on global and regional scales. General topics of interest include the effects of the oceans on and the responses of the oceans to climate variability and change.
Session C10: Land, Water and Climate
(conveners: D. Lawrence, P. Kabat)
The land surface plays an important role in the global, regional and local water cycle through its control of runoff and evapotranspiration processes. This modulation of the water cycle by the land has important implications for climate through impacts on the surface energy balance, clouds, temperature, river discharge, vegetation, and biogeochemical cycles. Moreover land use is changing through human activities, and land vegetation cover may also change due to changing climate.
This session invites papers that address the role of land processes in the water cycle and the broader climate system, including the coupling between the land and the atmosphere, feedback mechanisms between land, the water cycle and the climate system, especially with respect to the influence of land feedbacks on droughts and floods. Papers on land-water-ecosystem interactions are also encouraged. The session encompasses both regional and global-scale land process and feedback studies, and aspects ranging from conceptual analyses to observed interrelationships to modeling and climate-change impacts.
The term "cryosphere” collectively describes the portions of the Earth's surface where water is in a solid form and includes the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, permafrost and frozen ground, snow cover, and lake and river ice. The cryosphere is an integral part of the global climate system. It has important linkages and feedbacks with surface energy and moisture fluxes, clouds, precipitation, hydrology, and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. This session welcomes contributions on the following topics:
- Understanding of the physical processes and feedbacks through which the cryosphere interacts with the climate system;
- Improving the representation of cryospheric processes in models, and reducing uncertainties in simulations of climate and predictions of climate change;
- Assessing and quantifying the impacts of past and future climate variability and change on components of the cryosphere and their consequences, particularly for global energy and water budgets, frozen ground conditions, sea level change, and the maintenance of polar sea ice; and
- Enhanced observations and modeling of the cryosphere in support of process studies, model evaluation and change detection.
Session C12: Clouds, Aerosols and Climate
(conveners: M. Webb, P. Siebesma, G. Feingold)
Clouds and aerosols are responsible for substantial uncertainties in predictions of variability and change in the Earth's climate system. This session welcomes posters on understanding and predicting the effects of clouds and aerosols on present-day climate, climate variability and climate change, through studies based on observations, climate models, high-resolution numerical simulations, theoretical arguments or combinations of these. These may focus on clouds, aerosols, cloud-aerosol interactions or those between clouds, aerosols and other components of the climate system. These include not only interactions within the atmosphere (for example via radiative transfer, microphysics, convection, boundary layer and chemical processes) but also across the broader energy cycle, hydrological cycle, carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, in the oceans, cryosphere, land and biosphere.
TUESDAY 25 OCTOBER
Posters are invited to cover the different aspects of climate variability and change in the Americas, with emphasis on regional integrated analyses at the level of large river basins. This new knowledge is actively generated in the region through the analysis of various types of climate observations, experimenting with predictions on the seasonal to interdecadal time scales, and reviewing climate projections until the end of the 21st century. For the sustainable development of the region it is essential to ensure that climate products and information can be efficiently used in regional management and planning activities. Main themes covered by the posters include:
- interaction between the producers of climate information and the user’s community in the Americas;
- extensive analyses of uncertainties and biases in climate predictions and projections;
- need of capacity building, where the scientific community can interact with the user community and decision makers; and
- incorporation of climate products and information in management and planning activities on various time scales.
The global climate system consists of a number of inter-connected components, and each component is observed with a range of instruments and techniques. There are challenges for the research community in integrating the observations of these components to produce homogeneous and consistent global datasets of climate variables that can be used to support climate services. The challenges include the design and implementation of sustained global observing systems, the management and sharing of observations, and the consistent integration of data from different observing platforms. When global datasets are produced, there are further challenges in assessing the uncertainties associated with each dataset, documenting the characteristics of datasets to facilitate their application by disparate users, and ensuring the accessibility of the datasets. There is also increasing work on the development of on-line tools for co-registration and visualization of datasets by users. New strategies are being developed to transform climate observations to integrated datasets and information to support climate services of value to the wider community.
This session encourages posters that deal with the synthesis of different observations and analyses into products and information that are useful for climate services, and the development of climate services especially following the themes emerging from the World Climate Conference-3. Papers are sought on topics dealing with systems designed to foster better interactions between users and scientists, technology transfer of scientific results to useful products, the management of uncertainties, and the use of information for adaptation and mitigation of climate change.
The oceans are a major source of predictability at intraseasonal to interannual timescales and a promising source of predictability at decadal and longer time scales. As such, a sustained flow of ocean and sea-ice observations is needed, in order to improve our understanding of processes, as well as to validate and improve and constrain climate models. Some of the essential components of the ocean and sea-ice observing system are the tropical and extratropical moored buoy arrays, the Argo network, the surface drifter network, the repeat carbon/hydrography sections, the ship of opportunity network, tide gauges, and satellites (sea level, winds, surface temperature and salinity, ocean color). There are also process studies providing key observational and intellectual breakthroughs over the last decade. Essential physical, chemical, and biological parameters (Essential Climate Variables in the parlance of the Global Climate Observing System) are now routinely estimated from these observing networks. In this session, we invite posters reviewing the main achievements of the ocean and sea ice observing system for climate studies over the last ten years, as well as studies providing perspective for the key observations to be added in the future. This includes assessments of the requirements for ocean observing, both in terms of science and operational applications such as seasonal and decadal prediction. Observing system evaluation experiments are also welcome, as are descriptions of promising new technologies (both in situ and remote sensing) to observe the ocean and sea-ice for climate research.
Observational studies related to the variations of the atmosphere from the surface to the upper atmosphere are critical to understand the nature of the different spatial and temporal scales of climate variability, and co-variations between different climate variables. Quality, high-density data sets now allow not only studies of variations of means, but also variations of climate extremes. This session welcomes posters analyzing observations of the atmosphere to understand variability and long-term changes of the climate system. The scope includes dynamical variables as well as atmospheric composition.
Land surface processes are critical to understanding Earth's climate system. So far our understanding of the feedbacks of land surface processes and the climate is limited and largely based on model experiments. Observational data analysis is needed to generate benchmark data sets for Earth System Models and to constrain process understanding. We welcome research contributions that include observations both at global and regional scales that improve understanding of land surface processes in the Earth System.
The high latitude climate, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, is changing rapidly. These changes are influencing the cold region hydrological cycle with consequent feedbacks to the global climate system. The hydrological cycle changes impact atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial physical and bio-geochemical processes; ice sheet and glacier mass balance and sea level rise; and human societies. It is hence critical to monitor and understand the changes to all components of the high latitude and high altitude hydrological cycle through improved observational networks, process studies, data integration, and simulation using sophisticated models. The results of high-latitude observations and research undertaken within the framework of the International Polar year 2007-2008 provide a baseline from which to extend scientific programs and observational systems in these regions.
This session will firstly focus on observations and analyses that clarify the hydrological changes occurring in cold regions, especially taking into account changes in hydrological and cryospheric components such as lakes and rivers, soil moisture, snow cover, frozen ground and glaciers and ice sheets. It will include studies based on surface and satellite observations, modeling, data integration and upscaling from the local to regional and even hemispheric scales. Secondly, it will include consideration of how well various hydrological models are able to reproduce the recent observed changes, and what model improvements are required. Thirdly, the session will consider the impacts of cold region hydrological cycle change on, and interaction with, other parts of the total Earth System, including human activities. Through these discussions we aim to clarify what is now understood about the cold climate hydrological cycle and what is not, what optimal observational networks are required, and what processes we need to understand better.
The paleo-climate record contains an enormous amount of information regarding drivers of climate change and the climate system response. As yet, very little of this information has been systematically used to inform the future predictions made by the current state-of-the-art Earth System models. This session is focused on providing quantitative links between paleo-data (from all spheres and time-scales) and paleo-climate modeling, and suggesting possible insights into model projections of future climate change. We are especially interested in submissions relating the PMIP3 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene and Last Millennium in the CMIP5 database that will also contain future projections using the same models. We also welcome any use of paleo-data to constrain future responses of Earth System components (such as ice sheets or ecosystems) that are not currently well-modeled.
The session will focus on data assimilation using coupled Earth-System models for the purpose of state estimation and initialization of coupled forecasts from medium-range, seasonal to decadal time scales. Applications include ocean-sea ice, ocean-atmosphere and land surface. Scientific foci will include impact on surface fluxes, heat and freshwater content in the ocean, sea level variability and change on regional spatial scales and variability of the MOC. But a primary focus will be on emerging attempts for coupled initialization and reanalysis. The session will also include discussions of model improvements through parameter estimation and the improvements of initialization and forecasts using coupled initialization. Finally the session will include observing system design for the initialization of coupled models.
Many global climate products suffer from inhomogeneous or incomplete coverage. Satellite observations, while global, often cannot adequately retrieve parameters of interest, while in-situ observations tend to be incomplete and may differ among regions depending upon measurement techniques and differences in how parameters are defined. This creates unique problems and challenges that must be dealt with if globally consistent climate data sets are to be constructed and maintained, in particular if these datasets cover climate change timescales (multiple decades). The session solicits papers dealing with methods used to integrate regional data sets into global products, and issues related to constructing and synthesizing global data sets from regionally disparate measurements (e.g. quantifying and understanding the uncertainties, measurement traceability). Parameters of interest include those that are constrained globally but best observed locally such as trace gas emissions and concentrations, land use/land use change, precipitation or surface turbulent fluxes to name just some examples from an obviously much broader list.
This session will focus on the management, access, interoperability, and use of various data products and services to enable scientific climate and weather research. As the volume and complexity of data archives continue to grow, with the addition of newer and finer-scale climate data sets, there is an increasing need for new and advanced data management approaches and services. One particular challenge is to have these data sets available in the necessary formats and locations, such as on supercomputing and other platforms, for scientific researchers. Furthermore, as data assimilation techniques are used in more applications, better solutions to bringing the data to the models will be required. There is a need for increased coherence in formats, data structures, and management systems between multi-scale models and diverse forcing, parameterization, assimilation, and validation data.
This session solicits papers on remote data access tools (OPeNDAP, GrADS Data Server, OGC protocols, FTP, etc.), remote data services (sub-setting, format conversion, media and image distribution, data analysis, etc.), data set metadata and documentation, and methods to enhance interoperability between these various services. Customized data services for specific scientific applications will also be presented during this session. We welcome posters describing management, access, and interoperability solutions for data products on a wide range of spatial and temporal time scales. We also welcome submissions on creative on-line data analysis methods and approaches that will facilitate selection of key data sets/features from large archives to avoid large-volume data transfers across the web. Various international data archive and management groups are encouraged to participate.
This session solicits papers on diagnostics and interpretation of results from recent reanalyses of all components of the climate system, but particularly the atmosphere and the oceans, and on expanding the understanding of current reanalyses and synthesized observation data sets for use in climate studies. Both inhomogeneity of the observational data record and the management of bias in the synthesis models require the development of new approaches. This session therefore also solicits papers on data assimilation methodology aimed at improved reanalysis products suitable for climate research and applications.
In order to understand and quantify climate change and variability one requires data records of sufficient length, consistency and continuity. Given the often piecemeal (e.g., from satellites), changing observations, many environmental disciplines are trying to develop longterm integrated data records. These so-called Climate Data Records (CDR) are often derived from multiple data streams, covering different observation periods. Reprocessing techniques such as statistical inter-comparisons, algorithm refinements, resampling, and gap filling are applied to the measurement time series to compile climate data records.
This session solicits posters which describe longterm environmental data records, the techniques used to compile these time series (and estimate uncertainties) and their use in empirical studies of climate change and variability. Contributions are encouraged on how to make the process for developing CDRs more open, transparent and accessible. Submissions are encouraged from all areas of the globe, and environmental disciplines and on satellite and in situ data.
Observations are the key to understanding climate processes in the present and past, and for validating both theory and models. While quantitative satellite measurements of the atmosphere date back about 40 years, recent developments in data assimilation techniques have led to a greatly improved ability to assimilate these measurements into weather prediction models. Satellites provide the most comprehensive view of the earth, with high frequency and high resolution observations over most of the planet. Short-term climate forecast applications, as well as the need for better boundary conditions for the atmosphere, have also stimulated efforts in assimilation of satellite observations of the ocean, land surface, and cryosphere. New satellite measurements and new applications of satellite observations are now emerging for atmospheric composition, the cryosphere, space weather, and ecological systems. From both climate analysis and climate forecast initialization perspectives, there is increased interest in coupled systems encompassing multiple time scales and in an integrated approach to the estimation of the current and past climate. Therefore, this session will consider all aspects of satellite observations of the climate system from the surface (ice, land and ocean) to the ionosphere (meteorology and constituents) and their assimilation into all types of models, ranging from simple models to weather, climate, and comprehensive Earth system models. Posters on the potential use of new and future satellite observations are encouraged.
WEDNESDAY 26 OCTOBER
Africa is considered by the IPCC as one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change because of the low adaptive capacity of its population and projected climate change impacts. It is also the continent on which the largest trend of rainfall decrease has been observed. This trend has been brought to the public attention, in particular, by a series of severe droughts in the Sahel between the 1970s and 1990s. Africa requires a strong scientific community to better understand its dependence on climate. In order to prepare regional and national adaptation strategies, there is an urgent need to improve the knowledge of climate change impacts.
This session invites papers on the general topic of climate variability and change in Africa and their impacts. Of particular interest are studies which further understanding of extreme droughts and high precipitations events which might produce floods, from a forecasting perspective as well as from predictions for a warmer climate. The session will also cover the impacts of climate variability and change on socio-economic activities. For instance, using seasonal and longer term predictions to evaluate impacts on the hydrology and water resources in the great lake region, or using such forecasts for agronomic activities and food security early warning systems. Studies on coastal aspects of climate change and their impacts for populations are also relevant in this session, as are posters highlighting capacity building activities.
Advances in observations and models are contributing to the development of a prediction system that can forecast variability across weather and climate time scales. These "seamless prediction systems" must be able to adequately forecast variability on sub-seasonal, seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales in order to produce reliable predictions of regional climate change, since variability on sub-seasonal and seasonal time scales is important in influencing longer-time-scale behavior, and that behavior is important in influencing variability on weather time scales. Advancing the development of seamless prediction systems requires building on the scientific experience and knowledge gained from prediction and modeling studies focused on specific time scales. This session invites contributions on advances in predictions and predictability across the continuum of time scales from sub-seasonal to decadal.
Posters on topics of particular interest include, but are not limited to:
- Progress in short-term forecasting, for example, of statistics of extreme events, monsoon variability, and tropical disturbances;
- Seasonal-to-interannual forecasts, for example, improvements in ENSO forecasts;
- Initial assessments of decadal hindcasts, including papers on assessing forecast skill due to initialization and uncertainties due to model physics;
- Assessment of simulations of potentially predictable natural variability across models
- Assessment of mechanisms for decadal predictability; and
- Predictability studies, for example, studies focused on initial value and forced predictability.
This session seeks to highlight issues at the intersection of weather and climate, including the intervening time scale, phenomenology and prediction lead times (e.g. 2 weeks to 2 months), the processes and interactions that are common to both and provide a bridge between the two, and the observation and modeling resources and tools used to address knowledge shortcomings as well as advance our prediction capabilities.
- theory, modeling and observations of organized convection - exploiting and augmenting YoTC,
- multi-sensor/multi-platform observation studies of convection, radiation and dynamic interactions,
- ocean-atmosphere interactions at the intersection of weather and climate,
- extra-tropical cyclones, blocking and extratropical transitions,
- tropical-extratropical interactions on the sub-seasonal time scales,
- seamless weather and climate prediction: research and operations, and
- high-resolution and novel modeling frameworks.
Two techniques for generating regionally specific, high-resolution climate projections from global climate model simulations are statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling, referred to commonly as Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD). The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) aims to provide an international structure within which various RCD methodologies can be compared, improved, standardized and, where possible, best-practices recommended. CORDEX has a number of specific aims:
- to produce a new generation of RCD projections for land-regions worldwide based on new CMIP5 GCM projections;
- to foster and maintain a working dialogue between the RCD communities and the impact, adaptation and vulnerability communities; and
- to engage developing nation scientists in the generation, evaluation and use of CORDEX data in regions specific.
The first phase of CORDEX is under way, with a concerted effort to generate a matrix of RCD projections for Africa, along with a number of coordinated activities for other regions. This session will highlight recent progress in developing and applying RCD techniques, as well as presenting first results from CORDEX and discussing future priorities in the general area of RCD.
This session will focus on recent developments in the modeling of the physical components of the climate system. These developments include new dynamical atmosphere and ocean model cores, high-resolution coupled models with associated challenges and opportunities, improvements in coupling between atmosphere/ocean/ice/land component models, and advances in parameterization of physical processes. We encourage contributions focusing on the development of parameterizations for a wide variety of processes, including, but not limited to: clouds and precipitation; cloud-aerosol coupling; sea-ice and snow processes; physical aspects of the land-surface; air-sea fluxes; ocean mixing; ocean eddies. Contributions focused on parameter estimation techniques and stochastic approaches to parameterization are also encouraged. The impact of these improved models on the representation of climate phenomena such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, interannual and decadal climate variability, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, the thermohaline circulation, recent sea-ice trends as well as the mean climate will be considered.
Posters are solicited for research on techniques that may help quantify uncertainty of predictions on a wide range of time scales from sub-seasonal predictions to long-term climate projections. Topics may include, but are not limited, to: (1) sources of uncertainty in key climate processes; (2) sensitivity studies; and (3) methods for estimating the uncertainty due to model errors, including multi-model ensemble predictions and projections, multi-parameterization ensembles, use of perturbed parameters in ensembles, stochastic parameterization techniques, superparameterization, and statistical post-processing techniques.
Earth’s climate system presently supports two great ice sheets, Greenland and Antarctica, and in the past has also supported the Laurentide and Eurasian Ice Sheets. Changes in the ice sheets, on a wide variety of time scales, are driven the atmosphere and ocean. The mechanisms behind slow and fast changes are not fully understood, despite their considerable importance and practical implications such as sea level change. The ice sheets are subject to natural and forced variability, and the resulting changes have influences back onto the atmosphere and ocean through, for example, their dependence on albedo, topography, and freshwater fluxes. In this session we solicit posters that cover the broad science range of ice sheets and their interactions with other components of the climate system. Observational, theoretical, and modeling studies are welcome, including both process and large scale modeling studies.
Water and energy cycles in models used for climate projections and weather forecasting exhibit strong biases. Water and energy cycles involve multiple variables and processes over a range of space and time scales. Moreover, multiple observations and statistical techniques are necessary for adequate monitoring and model improvement.
The land, cryosphere, atmosphere and ocean are important components to be examined from both an isolated and integrated perspective. This session invites studies aimed at observing, diagnosing or improving quantities which impact the overall processes related to the energy and water cycles in models. Furthermore, this session is dedicated to application of new observations, advanced diagnostics and alternative model optimization concepts addressing the integrated analysis and improvement of water and energy cycles.
We encourage papers on topics including:
- data sets that close regional/global energy and water balances and scaling techniques, including the expanded use of remote sensing;
- diurnal (night-day transition, clear to cloudy transition), seasonal and yearly variability of the water/energy cycles;
- integrated description of the water cycle and its variability including the feedbacks between the atmosphere, land, cryosphere and the oceans;
- coupling between surface processes and boundary layer dynamics (including clouds), and the role of land surface heterogeneity on this coupling;
- variables that express the coupling between the land and atmosphere in observations and models;
- advanced statistical techniques and model diagnostics, like Lagrangian composites, Information Transfer Analysis, and initial tendencies among others;
- definitions of theoretical upper limits of land related predictability;
- data assimilation techniques and results; and
- novel model calibration and parameter estimation approaches to improving and closing energy and water budgets.
Session C32: Earth System Models: Developments and Simulations
(conveners: K. Hibbard, A. Rinke, N. Mahowald, J. Jungclaus, G. Flato, P. Friedlingstein)
As the 4th assessment report of the IPCC (AR4) concluded, it was clear that to improve understanding of Earth’s climate system, an integrated set of tools linking the coupled physical and biogeochemical processes would be required. Furthermore, a consistent representation of interactions between the natural and human systems would be necessary for policy and decision makers. Understanding the complex dynamics of the global climate system requires the development of Earth system models that simulate not only the interactions between the components of the ‘physical’ climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere), but also biogeochemical process such as aerosols and the carbon cycle. The latter are crucial to quantify the feedbacks between the physical and biogeochemical processes that determine the overall response of the Earth system to both anthropogenic and natural forcing. Considerable progress has been made in this field in the last few years, and a coordinated suite of experiments with such models is being undertaking via the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These results will feed directly into the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to be published in 2013. Posters on the development of Earth system models and experimentation with them are invited.
The study of climate feedbacks, processes which act to modify the climate system and are themselves changed with climate forcing, is essential to interpreting global and regional observed changes in climate, as well as in understanding differences in model projections for the future. This session will focus on studies of atmospheric, land surface and oceanic feedbacks from modeling or process studies, as well as observational studies in which climatic feedbacks can be observed or constrained. This session welcomes novel analyses for diagnosing large scale feedbacks in the climate system as well as process-based studies which can relate feedbacks to physical processes. Model-based studies are also encouraged, including novel methodologies for assessing and comparing feedbacks in different GCMs which might lead to greater understanding of inter-model differences in global response to climate forcing as well as studies which use both models and observations to constrain the real-world amplitude of major climate feedbacks. We would also welcome posters relating to the diagnosis and interpretation of specific feedbacks in observations, including studies relating to high-latitude feedbacks (e.g. large scale albedo changes, permafrost thaw, methane clathrate release), mid-latitude feedbacks (e.g. boundary layer cloud feedbacks, desertification) and tropical feedbacks (e.g. convective cloud and humidity feedbacks).
The focus of this poster session is on analyses of global climate model simulations that provide insight into the workings of the climate system in terms of understanding processes and mechanisms. Such analyses can enhance understanding of climate variability and change for current and past climate, and can quantify possible future climate change from climate model projections. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is a coordinated effort involving the climate modeling groups from around the world to run the same set of experiments to address model evaluation and climate change projections. This session will provide a first opportunity for results to be presented from analyses of that new multi-model dataset, and is thus the primary focus. However, the session is not restricted to CMIP5 analyses, and will also welcome results from other coordinated global climate model experiments such as CMIP3 and CCMVal. The session could also include results pertaining to, for example, reanalyses, transpose AMIP, and quantitative performance metrics.
THURSDAY 27 OCTOBER
Europe’s diverse climates and its high density of population mean that the impacts of a changing climate associated with a likely increase in weather extremes such as heat-waves, drought, floods and wind storms will weigh heavily on regional to national economies. Climate services are being developed in a number of countries to advise and support adaptation to these changes. It is particularly important that the results be relevant to the problem being addressed by a given user.
Within Europe, examples of vulnerability include consequences of drought in the Iberian Peninsula, the implications of dwindling Alpine glaciers for water availability, coastal zone vulnerability to sea-level rise and storm surges, and rapid changes to the Arctic environment. This session invites poster presentations that contribute to addressing these and similar issues of climate variability and change throughout Europe by meeting the needs for integrated climate science, information and capacity building on regional scales. These needs include furthering our understanding of past to future changes in regional climates and extremes, through observations and modeling, and to better quantify the impacts of these changes on both the natural environment (e.g., hydrology, cryosphere, and biosphere) and socio-economic systems (e.g., agriculture, health, energy). There is also a need to address the future course of climate and impacts by sector and/or by region that may occur if the EU climate policy of limiting global warming to +2°C above pre-industrial levels were to be achieved, in order to investigate whether this would be sufficient to avert adverse impacts in many parts of Europe. Posters which focus on the effective generation and use of regional to local scale information are particularly welcome, together with those on the representation and communication of uncertainties. Posters documenting climate services for impacts and adaptation at national and/or regional level are also welcome.
Numerous assessments of stratospheric ozone depletion have been made since the 1970s in response to scientific studies that suggested that stratospheric ozone depletion would result from the releases of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Since 1987, these assessments have been conducted on a regular basis to provide the science underpinning for the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
In this session, posters are invited exploring:
- the future abundances of trace gases including ozone-depleting substances, their substitutes, e.g., hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and greenhouse gases;
- the response of the ozone layer to changing levels of trace gases and aerosols and to dynamical and radiative effects related to climate change;
- tropospheric and surface changes forced by stratospheric changes (including radiative forcings from ozone, water and other gases, as well as dynamically forced changes); and
- uncertainties in stratospheric changes associated with future trace gas and aerosol scenarios.
This session invites observational and modeling studies on modes of large-scale climate variability. Topics appropriate for this session include the natural "modes" of the climate system such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, atmospheric teleconnection patterns, the Northern and Southern Annular Modes, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. We welcome papers on physical and statistical analysis of these phenomena from observations, models, and synthesis/reanalysis products. Of particular interest are studies on mechanisms driving these modes, their impacts, and their sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic forcings.
Session C37: Ocean Circulation and Ventilation
(conveners: B. Sloyan, S. Garzoli, S. Griffies, B. Johns)
The last decade has seen major advances to ocean observational methods and coverage (both spatial and temporal) and increasingly realistic ocean synthesis, ocean-sea ice and climate model simulations. The observational advancements have come from the broad-scale deployment of upper-ocean instruments, focused multidisciplinary observations along repeating deep ocean transects, and time series of ocean properties and air-sea exchanges at strategic locations and satellites. Improved understanding of the underlying ocean dynamical processes together with increased computational power has enabled us to develop complex ocean-sea ice and climate models. The improved capability to both observe and model the ocean has driven increased understanding of ocean circulation variability from days to centennial time scales, air-sea interaction and ocean interior processes that drive water mass formation and ocean ventilation.
In this session, we invite poster submissions that contribute to the further understanding of the role of the ocean circulation and dynamical processes on the global climate system.
This session will cover both observations and models of historical and projected sea levels. The historical period considered will include the last interglacial and from the last glacial maximum, including the last two millennia, and the instrumental period starting in the 1800s through to the modern satellite era. Projections will cover both the 21st century and implications for the longer term. All contributions to sea-level rise will be considered: steric sea level, glacier and ice caps, ice sheets, changes in terrestrial storage and the magnitude of extreme events driven by storm surges or wave conditions. Posters on the global average and the regional distribution of sea-level variability and rise, including extreme events and the synthesis of observations and models are encouraged.
Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, heavy rainfall and associated flooding, extreme winds, marine storminess and associated coastal flooding enhanced by ongoing sea level rise, are responsible for a disproportionately large part of climate-related damages and are thus of great concern to the impact community and stakeholders. This topic is one of the most important cross-cutting issues of WCRP involving several core projects (GEWEX, CLIVAR and CliC) attempting to quantify the mechanisms and identify changes in observed extreme events. An important result is that changes in the distributional tails of climate variables may not necessarily be coherent with the changes in their mean values. WCRP has promoted coordinated efforts to monitor indices of extreme events and perform multi-model experiments (at global and regional scales) that have facilitated the characterization of observed extremes, and the evaluation and inter-comparisons of simulations of extremes. Nevertheless, considerable gaps remain in our understanding and quantification of extremes due to deficiencies in both the observational data (e.g., biases, different observational practices, and shortness of the records) and modeling tools (e.g., inability to simulate the most intense tropical storms that have the greatest impact on society). This limits efforts to fully exploit model results and apply advanced statistical methodologies to effectively characterize changes in the intensity and frequency of simple and compound extreme events (e.g., droughts) resulting from many pre-conditions. Thus, a full understanding and accurate characterization of extreme behavior in a non-stationary climate remains a challenge for both observational and model studies. There is a clear need to quantify the usefulness of different modern data sets, including reanalyses and satellite data to effectively capture the temporal and spatial characteristics of extremes. Also of great importance is the comprehensive evaluation of model results for simulating past, current and future weather and climate extremes.
This session seeks to gather research results spanning this broad range of topics on weather and climate extremes. Submissions are encouraged on observational and model diagnostic studies, as well as research on the development of new methodologies for quantifying extremes. Of particular interest are studies that take advantage of the latest reanalysis products, and the results from CMIP5 and other high resolution, global and regional, climate model simulations. We expect that the session will largely contribute to the development of WCRP and its core project profile on extreme events for the next decade.
Numerous aspects of the cryosphere have undergone significant change over the historical record. These include retreating mountain glaciers, dramatic reductions in Arctic sea ice, declining terrestrial snow cover, widespread thawing of permafrost and changes in the mass budget of large ice sheets. Climate models project that these changes will continue and likely accelerate in the near future. The climate effects of this cryospheric change are considerable. For example, the amplification of Arctic temperature change is associated with large-scale surface albedo change resulting from declines in snow and sea ice cover. Additionally, changes in extreme events will likely result from further cryospheric change. An important gap in our current understanding of cryospheric climate dynamics is the role of feedbacks in amplifying or attenuating change. The aim of this session is to discuss ongoing and projected changes in the cryosphere and their influence on the climate system. Papers discussing teleconnections of polar climate changes to mid- and low-latitudes are also welcome.
Detection and attribution of climate change has progressed from studying global mean temperature variations on centennial scales to the analysis of regional changes in temperature and other variables over several decades. This progress presents the opportunity for detection and attribution analyses to directly input policy decisions and adaptive actions. This session will present developments toward addressing this service, including regional and local analyses and weather event attribution. Papers are encouraged on progress in the physical understanding of the causes of changing climate conditions including the behavior of meteorological events, and development of statistical methodologies for characterizing the contributions of those causes. Papers are also solicited on approaches to creating and communicating authoritative assessments of the state of the climate in order to foster a climate literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions.
Climate change and air pollution are intimately connected. Air pollutants are emitted either as gases (e.g. sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and organics) or as aerosols (e.g. black carbon) and some gases are important aerosol precursors (e.g. some organics). Aerosols as particulate matter can be detrimental for human health and they play an important role in climate. They can affect ecosystems by reducing sunlight reaching the surface, and change the ratio of direct to diffuse radiation entering plant canopies. They can influence aquatic, agricultural and forest ecosystems through acid deposition. Gaseous pollutants are also important to air quality, air chemistry, ecosystems, human health and climate. For example ozone is a radiatively active gas, a reactive gas, and an important oxidant influencing many aspects of the chemistry of the atmosphere. It is a very important pollutant in cities with for example (summertime) smog having serious consequences for human health and plant growth.
Pollutants can play a role locally, but also influence the planet at hemispheric scales. Recent modeling studies and field measurements suggest that local air pollution can be influenced by intercontinental transport from far away sources, and national regulation may no longer be sufficient to assure reasonable air quality. The climatic effects of atmospheric pollutants can also be non-local, with radiative forcing producing far-field effects on planetary scale features of the general circulation.
Air pollution can change the climate, but climate change can also influence air pollution and air quality. The changes in the general circulation due to increasing greenhouse gases may influence the frequency of occurrence and intensity of stagnant meteorological episodes, leading to more frequent and higher levels of pollution. Emissions of biogenic ozone precursors such as isoprene and terpenes depend on temperature and therefore global warming may also increase tropospheric ozone concentrations in the planetary boundary layer.
Many pollutants are co-emitted, and laws regulating the emission of one pollutant will have consequences for others, with an impact on air quality, air chemistry, and climate.
These are examples of the ways that air quality, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry and climate are connected. We invite posters illustrating, and analyzing the connections between these topics, and the consequences of pollutant emissions and their regulation on the planet.
This poster session focuses on regional modeling and analysis of the terrestrial water cycle and related implications on water resources. Topics of relevance for the session include: continental to global scale water and energy cycle studies, including results from Regional Hydroclimate Projects. The session solicits papers on data set development, synthesis across data sets, and analysis of such data sets; uncertainties in documenting, understanding and predicting the hydrological cycle over land; assessment of climate variability and the impact of such change on water resources, including extremes (floods and droughts); and the role of terrestrial hydrological processes on the regional hydrological cycle and their representation within climate models. The session also encourages contributions on the results from climate change assessment studies, particularly impacts on water resources and the terrestrial hydrological budget, studies on the methods and results from downscaling both seasonal forecast and climate projection models outputs for hydrological and water resources studies, and the use of the model data for water resources with a particular focus on uncertainties.
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is an important component of the global climate system. With fossil fuel emissions and deforestation releasing a total of around 9 Pg-C annually, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are growing at almost 2 ppm annually. However, this increase is only about half of what it would be if there were not significant sinks in the ocean and land biota. There are concerns that the sinks may not able to "keep up" with the rapidly increasing CO2 emissions thereby increasing the fraction of CO2 that remains in the atmosphere, but scientific results so far are inconclusive and contradictory. Potential feedback mechanisms and critical thresholds in the carbon balance due to changing environmental conditions, including possible additional emissions of CO2 and CH4 from thawing terrestrial and submarine permafrost, are another component of the climate system that is poorly constrained. The aim of this session is to highlight recent research on the magnitude and evolution of the ocean and terrestrial biosphere CO2 sinks. We encourage results from both observations and modeling studies to submit abstracts.
With continued global warming, an increased pace of greenhouse gases emissions, and the array and magnitude of climate impacts intensifying, increasing attention is being paid to the potential for limiting the effects of anthropogenic climate change through large-scale geotechnical means, often called geoengineering. The most discussed approaches include deliberately altering Earth’s radiation balance via carbon capture and storage (for example, by scrubbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or strengthening its oceanic sinks) or solar radiation management (by brightening low-level clouds or generating a sulfate aerosol layer in the stratosphere). Although specific approaches have been proposed, relatively little is known about their potential effectiveness and possible unintended consequences. Issues of technological feasibility are also largely unexplored. We therefore invite contributions that describe and address the potential effectiveness and scientific and technical problems associated with deliberate climate modification, including the potential for enhancement of terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Topics can include modeling studies of the climatic impacts of proposed schemes; studies of unintended environmental consequences; and evaluations of technological feasibility. Recognizing that geoengineering raises a range of societal, ethical, and governance issues, posters on these aspects are also welcome.